It is a fascinating bit of interpretation. The Toronto Star story today says that Forum Research is predicting that the Liberals would win a minority government with 33 percent of the popular vote. The poll shows the PCs with 38 percent support and the NDP with 22 percent. The reasoning goes that because the Liberal vote is “more efficient” they might be able to garner as many as 49 seats compared to 45 seats for the PCs and 13 for the NDP. Until it happens, we cannot know that it wont, but it would certainly be an outcome that has never been seen in Ontario before. In the 2011 election the Liberals won a minority with 37.62 percent of the vote against the PCs at 35.4 percent and the NDP at 22.73 percent. The pollster professes amazement at the support lost by the NDP, but as the numbers show, that party has about the same support now as it did on voting day three years ago. In 1990, when Bob Rae formed the government, the NDP vote was 37.6 percent. The Liberals got 32.4 percent and the PCs 23.5 percent. That translated into 74 seats for the NDP, 36 for the Liberals and 20 for the PCs. There has been a redistribution since then with ridings getting larger and fewer in number.
