It catches the attention when someone says the federal election is merely four months away. So notes John Ibbitison as former Toronto police chief Bill Blair is nominated to run for the Liberals in Scarborough Southwest. This augurs well for the Liberals in that constituency but it is Mr. Ibbitson’s contention that the Justin Trudeau Liberals are in a tight spot if they hope to form the government Ibittson’s focus is on Quebec where the Mulcair New Democrats continue to keep voter loyalty in ridings they won under the late Jack Layton. If the Liberals can’t break through in Quebec, says Ibbitson, they can’t win a majority. Take a look at his guesstimates about national support. John Ibbitson, Globe and Mail