With election results barely an hour away, one of the great unknowns is whether pollsters can rely on Twitter to predict the outcome. Ipsos-Reid and others are working away at what Twitter posters are saying about how they will vote. But, do the people who comment on this new social media represent anything like the real world of Ontario voters? The marketing research company has been tracking and interpreting thousands of conversations related to the provincial election that have taken place on Twitter since the writ dropped on May 2. Voter intentions seem to favour the Liberals, who hold a share of 35% of the vote, according to the analysis. Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives are not far behind at 33%, with the NDP trailing at 28%. But the common sense awareness that this cannot be a representative sample of voters is on the mind of people like Mirza Baig, a digital and social media strategist at Mash Media. Be careful with this information, he says “If you look at some of the methodology and the analysis behind it, it can be questionable and iffy,” Mr. Baig told the National Post. “If I as a Twitter user am taking the time to either say I’m going to vote Liberal, or I’m going to vote PC, NDP, whichever party, that is not taking into account in any way the people that are just not taking the time to go on Twitter.” Shortly after 9 p.m. we will know if there is any connection between Twitter posts and the real world.
